Still unable to write

At my school we've been having our exams recently, and I had to go on an out of state field trip, without an internet source. Therfore I have been unable to write very much at all this past week or two. Break starts on Monday though.

All 50 States- Utah

Utah continues to be one of the few safe states left for the Republicans to grasp this year. Though even here there have been some impressive Democratic gains since 2004. In 2004 Bush won by 46 percent of the vote. In 2000, Bush won by 41%.

Obama managed to improve on their scores by double digits. Obama eventually only lost Utah by just under 30 percentage points. If history shows as a model though, I would expect that after an enthusiastic candidate like Obama has almost no chance in the near future, of coming even in single digits here.

All 50 States- Arkansas

Democrats have gained ground almost everywhere this presidential election. But Arkansas is one of the few states not to have gone in their direction. Obama managed to lose the formerly solid blue state by an astounding 20 points. That was redder than states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, and other states that Republicans normally do much better in than Arkansas. This is the first time in electoral history that a Democrat has one the White House while losing Arkansas.

The people of Appalachia and the Interior Coast of the United States just don't seem to like Obama very much. It is probably one of the few areas that the Republicans can probably count on, even in a landslide election. Even if the Dakotas, the Carolinas, Georgia, and Montana, start turning blue in 2012, the Republicans should be able to count on the people of Arkansas for at least a few electoral votes.

Congratulations to Senator Saxby Chambliss

Though many do not like Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss, apparently the people in his state do. He has officially won re-election, defeating his Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

This puts an end to the Democrat's hope of getting the magic 60 Senate seats. However, it was never really important anyway. There will almost always be defections on both sides. They are pretty much filibuster proof now, with moderate Republicans like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins usually going with the Democrats on one thing or another.

All 50 States- Hawaii

Hawaii is, and has always been, very politically liberal. It was helped even more by the fact that native son, Barack Obama, on the ticket. In the 2008 election it went to Obama by an astounding 45 percentage points. The closest county in the whole state was Honolulu County which Obama won by 41 percentage points.

Hawaii has always been very Democratic though. In its entire history in voting in presidential elections, it has only chosen the Republican candidate twice. In both cases the Democrat only won one state and the District of Columbia.

Republicans would have to do something extrodinary to put this state in play for them in any election cycle, in the next few decades. It is as solidly Democratic as ever.

All 50 States- Oklahoma

Oklahoma was the most Republican state this election. It went for McCain by an astounding 32 points. Obama wasn't even able to win a county here. In fact it was the only state in the whole country where Obama did not win a single county. He won 2 in Wyoming, 3 in Utah, and 3 in Idaho.

There is probably no way Obama will be able to put this state into play in 2012. Not even in a landslide incumbent win. He probably won't even be able to win more than a handful of counties.

Sorry

Sorry I haven't been able to write today or yesterday. I have had a lot to do. I'll probably be able to write some more tomorrow.

All 50 States- NE 02 Omaha

Nebraska's second congressional district was probably the biggest election day surprise. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to split their electoral votes by congressional district, though a split in the vote had never happened until this year. Even though the second district had nearly always been the most Democratic district of the state, a Democrat has not won it since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide election win in 1964.

Obama was only able to win this vote, however, by about 0.2% of the vote. And this was when he won the popular vote by more than 6%. It might go Democratic again in 2012 with a popular incumbent running again. But I would be more surprised than not if it stays Democratic any longer than that, unless, of course, we have some demographic preference changes.

Counties for 2012

If Obama does even a moderately well job meeting up to the high expectations of him, his election in 2012 will be a sweep. I created a county by county map by comparing good president incumbents and their approval ratings compared to Obama. With this I figured out what the electoral map could possibly look like in 2012. By the way the counties in Louisiana, Georgia, and Minnesota aren't there because it was too tedious to find out exactly what numbers correspond to each county.



And here is a state by state map.

John McCain now favored to win re-election in 2010

With Janet Napolitano most likely joining Obama's cabinet, it looks as though John McCain will easily glide to re-election in 2010. Napolitano was the only candidate who seemed even close to standing against McCain, with even her only leading in one poll. The failed Republican candidate for president led against all others.

I will reflect this the next time I do a Senate post.

Begich Officially wins Alaska, McCain wins Missouri

Congratulations to Senator-elect Mark Begich. He has defeated the longest serving Republican Senator, and convicted felon, Ted Stevens in the very contested Alaska senate race. Today Stevens finally conceded defeat after being down by 3,724 votes with few left to count.

Meanwhile the Associated press calls Missouri for McCain. After more than two weeks since the election Senator McCain has finally broken the Missouri bellwether status. That status now belongs to the state of Ohio, which has called it right every time since it went for Nixon in 1960.

Tom Daschle has become The Secretary of Health and Human Services. Its a good choice, but so far in the Obama administration, I have yet to see the bi-partisanship promised to me. I'm hoping for Chuck Hagel to be offered a cabinet position among others.

All 50 States- Vermont

Vermont, although being solidly red throughout most of the 20th century, it is now the second bluest state in the entire nation. It only lagged behind Hawaii in this election. It went to Barack Obama by thirty seven points.

Vermont has become way too Democratic for the Republicans to win it within the next few election cycles. If Obama does poorly and a GOP president gets elected in 2012 and they do well, then probably a landslide in 2016 is the earliest chance Republicans have of putting it barely in play.

All 50 States- Nevada

Over the course of the next 50 days or so I'll be reviewing everyone of the 50 states rolls in this elections and give my take on how they'll fall in the next ones. We'll start it off with one of my favorite states, Nevada.

Nevada has been one of the swingiest of the swing states for the past 5 elections. Even Bill Clinton with his back to back landslide wins, could not even carry the state by even 25,000 votes. George Bush beat Democratic Candidate Al Gore by 22,000 votes, and only beat weaker candidate John Kerry by about 19,000. This is why it has been one of the greatest "Bellwethers" in the country, only missing in 1976 in recent years.

This year, however, Barack Obama beat John McCain by an astounding 120,000 votes and 12 percentage points. Nevada's population has been growing tremendously, especially in the hugely Democratic cities like Reno and Las Vegas. I think that Nevada will probably be losing its swing state status soon, and will move into the Leans Democratic column. It will probably stay in that column for awhile, or at least until the Republicans can come up with a candidate who resonates with Hispanics.

More Senate Races

Missouri- Senator Kit Bond may face a tough re-election this cycle. His approval ratings aren't particularly high, and Missouri appears to be very comfortable with electing Democratic senators and governors lately. The race still leans in his direction, but if there is a particularly good Democrat challenging him, then it will probably be a tight race all the way to the end.

Kentucky- Jim Bunning will probably be easily defeated, especially in a Democratic wave. He has below average approval ratings and has been known to get particularly erratic and nasty during his last two senate elections. He used a teleprompter during a debate, and referred to one of his opponents as "Looking like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Even though Republicans won more seats in 2004 and broke even in 1998, Bunning won by less than a point in both elections.

Georgia's Runoff

Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin have both been trying to get the turnout up here. Chambliss, who got 110,000 more votes than Martin on election day, is easily the clear favorite. He might even win by more in the runoff due to depressed Democratic turnout. Many people who were fired up for Obma probably won't be for Martin. The Republicans however still have something to unite against; the 60th Democratic Senate Seat. Although it is easily possible for Martin to still win, especially if he has Barack Obama campaigning for him, Chambliss is definitely ahead.

Chuck Hagel?

I think Chuck Hagel would have made a great Secretary of State. He is retiring so he is not tied down anywhere like Kerry, Richardson, or Hillary. He is a great foreign policy expert and it is probably the point where he is strongest at and where Obama is weakest. Hagel fully supported Obama in the campaign, and was even one of the two senators who came with him on his trip to Europe in the summer.

Most of all Chuck Hagel is a great Republican, and would be a great step towards showing the true bipartisanship that Obama has promised all along. Obama's staffers have said though, that he is not among the ones being considered for the job. It seems likely it will go to Clinton, Richardson, Kerry, or former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. This doesn't mean that Hagel won't fit in in some other part of the administration, but I think Secretary of State would fit him best.

2010 Hot Senate Races

Some more Senate Races in 2010 that I think are particularly important.

Nevada- My personal favorite in 2010. In my opinion it will be this race that will show how great of a job Obama and the democratic congress did in its first two years. It is this race that shows the best pickup opportunity for the Republicans. If Reid can survive and get re-elected despite his low approval ratings than Obama did an at least better than passable job and met up with some of the sky high expectations of him. If not, well, Obama still might have been a good president but not one that would go down in history as have Lincoln, Jefferson, and Ike.

South Dakota- John Thune has got this locked up unless Tom Daschle runs against him once more. However Tom Daschle was recently announced to be on Obama's shortlist for Secretary of State. If he is chosen then I don't really see any Democrat in South Dakota strong enough to oppose Thune.

Begich Winning Alaska

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has pulled ahead of convicted felon, Ted Stevens in the hotly contested Alaska senate race. This has been a strange race, where apparently there was absolutely no pollster who could come even close to predicting this race. The polls after Steven's conviction a few days before November 4th, had Begich in the lead by 8-22 points.

Though now it looks like Begich will at least pull through by a small margin. Then there will only be the two uncalled seats left in Minnesota and Georgia. Democrats need both of them for the magic number of 60 seats. That is if Lieberman stays caucusing with Democrats. In my opinion 60 does not really matter because you will almost always have defections on all sides. Joe Lieberman to the Republicans. Olymbia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Norm Coleman to the Democrats. If you have 62-63 or so seats it will become truly filibuster proof.

In other news the four candidates for secretary of state are Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Tom Daschle, and Bill Richardson. It will be interesting to see who gets chosen, especially if it is Hillary.

By the way the reason I didn't post last night or the night before was because on Tuesdays I have Karate almost all night and on Wednesdays I have bass guitar.

Senate 2010 Hot Races

Based on small amounts of polling data and voting histories this is what I have arrived on for a very preliminary Senate 2010 Map. Some of the races should be very interesting. I'll go over all of the Senate races in the next few weeks but these two are two that stick out and deserve a paragraph or two right now.

Arizona- A familiar face is up for re-election. John McCain should be coasting to re-election in a state such as Arizona, but the only recent poll shows him trailing Governor Janet Napolitano by eight points. It is still very much up in the air with two years to go and with a pollster which was very erratic during the 2008 election cycle.

Of course she has not actually said she would run yet and if she does not then John McCain will almost definitely be re-elected comfortably.

Colorado- Ken Salazar will probably be easily re-elected come election time. His approval ratings are high, and there aren't many serious Republican contenders. The reason that he only leans democratic though is because the most recent poll suggests that he is only leading Bill Owens by three points. It was done by a Democratic pollster at that.

Minnesota Senate Race

The hotly contested race between incumbent Republican, Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, is down now to just 206 votes. There have already been a few human errors reported and the numbers seem to be moving steadily in Franken's direction. By the time the official recount begins in Mid-November, Franken may actually lead Coleman.

This race has already been thrown up into the air by ticket-splitters; especially by people who cast their ballot for Obama, but then punched the ticket in the senate race for the independent candidate, Dean Barkley.

This should be a really fun race to watch along with the Georgia Senate Runoff in December with Saxby Chambliss against Democrat, Jim Martin. Also the Alaska Race with the convicted Ted Stevens against Anchorage Mayor, Mark Begich.

Welcome

I am a 15 year old high school student from Missouri. I became extremely interested in politics and this election after this election. I believe it had a profound impact on the people at my school. More than three times the number of seniors registered during free periods than in 2004. Though I am obviously more interested in it than others. I am usually interested in some random things. (I am a black belt, a bass guitarist and a lock pick.) I also know some things about statistics and hope to offer my own take on the election polls and topics in 2010 and 2012. Though there are plenty of other political topics to cover until then.

I have great hope for the Obama administration and really hope that he can turn this country in the right direction.